Climate
Hedrick Belin
President, Potomac Conservancy
Tune into the news on any given day, and our new climate reality is clear:
“Hot droughts threaten the water supply in and around D.C.”
“More of DC region vulnerable to flood risk than previously thought.”
“2024 marks the warmest year on record for Washington DC”
“Shenandoah National Park faces wildfires”
From lengthening droughts to intensifying downpours, extreme weather patterns are stressing the Potomac River’s streams, ecosystems, and communities.
In 2023, our region experienced the worst drought in over a decade, causing wildfires and low water levels that harmed fish survival and prompted alerts from water utilities. Fast-forward two years later, and we’re still combating arid conditions. In May 2025, 87% of the Potomac River watershed was in active drought including 30% in severe drought.
Intensifying storms from a warmer atmosphere are a dangerous combination with droughts. Dry, hardened land does not absorb rainwater easily leading to dangerous flash flooding like that experienced in Western Maryland in summer 2025.
The list of regional climate impacts is long: Rising shorelines, increasing salinity levels, drought-fueled wildfires, warming stream temperatures…And vulnerability to climate threats are not felt evenly; they are deeply tied to economic, infrastructural, and racial inequities. Urban heat islands, created by decades of tree removal, unchecked development, and polluting land uses, leave many low-income communities susceptible to extreme heat.
How you can help
Support Potomac Conservancy and conservation partners who are advocating for equitable environmental laws and protecting forests and wetlands, nature’s best defense to climate threats.
Research & Analysis
Following Potomac Conservancy’s first-ever “Rising to the Challenge” climate report in 2021, we are integrating climate assessments as a new regular feature in our Potomac Report Card. Moving forward, our Report Cards will track the impact of extreme changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and flooding on the Potomac River watershed.
This year, we assessed climate trends most relevant to the Potomac and our region: precipitation, temperature, sea level rise, and flooding.
With CO2 levels in the atmosphere at 420 ppm, average temperatures are rising across the globe, and the Potomac watershed is no exception. As of 2024, eight of the ten hottest years on record for Washington, DC, have occurred in the past decade. Projections for 2085 suggest average temperatures in the watershed could rise by 2°C to 5°C. This will have far-reaching impacts, from heat-stressed wildlife to disrupted growing seasons, and disproportionately affect urban and marginalized communities due to the urban heat island effect, compounded by a lack of green spaces and climate investments in these areas.
The uncomfortable truth is local actions won’t reduce global temperatures. However, resilience-focused strategies can help communities cope with rising heat. Expanding urban forest canopies reduces the heat island effect, cooling neighborhoods and protecting rivers. Climate-smart building practices and infrastructure upgrades can provide passive cooling and stabilize power grids, benefiting both urban and rural areas.
Warmer temperatures also increase the variability and intensity of precipitation. Because warmer air holds more moisture, our watershed can experience heavier storms and more intense droughts. This won’t mean more or less rain, but more extreme weather events. Droughts will harm agriculture, reduce water flows, and raise temperatures in streams and rivers. In contrast, intense rainfall could overwhelm stormwater systems and pollute streams.
Resilience is key to addressing these challenges. Local solutions must align with regional policies to protect both people and ecosystems. In droughts, efficient water use and advanced irrigation can sustain base flows, while increased forest management can reduce wildfire risks. In flood-prone areas, upgrading stormwater infrastructure and promoting green practices like low-impact development can mitigate polluted runoff. These strategies aren’t new, but the Potomac watershed needs stronger commitment to build a resilient future where both people and wildlife thrive in the face of climate change.
Rising water levels—whether from sea level rise or flooding—are some of the most visible and urgent consequences of climate change. Anyone with property along the mid-Atlantic’s tide lines knows the stark reality: “Fifty years ago, the water was 30 feet from my house; now it’s 20 feet and rising every year.” The same story unfolds with flooding. At Great Falls, drought exposes every crevice of the rocky landscape, but during a flood, the falls disappear entirely. In the Potomac watershed, these impacts aren’t uniform. While Shenandoah National Park may be battling drought, Washington, DC could be drowning under floodwaters. So how will rising waters affect the Potomac?
While global sea levels are rising by an average of 3.1 mm/yr, local sea levels are climbing even faster in some areas. At the mouth of the Potomac, sea levels are rising at nearly double the global rate—6 mm/yr—while in DC, it’s 3.55 mm/yr. Year over year, these number seem miniscule, but over time they add up to devastating effects. By 2080, Washington, DC could face water levels 1.3 ft to 4.3 ft higher than today, threatening vital infrastructure and costing billions. Add to that the increasing frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms - even in so-called hurricane proof areas - and we face the added danger of storm surges flooding low-lying areas, while intense rain and wind wreak havoc.
There’s no one-size-fits-all solution to lower water levels, but a combination of smart infrastructure and nature-based solutions can blunt the worst of these effects. Wetlands that grow with rising waters can protect shorelines, enhance habitat, and filter pollutants. Meanwhile, climate-smart building practices and infrastructure upgrades across the watershed can fortify our communities and save billions in damage costs.
But rising waters aren’t just a coastal issue. As temperatures rise, we’ll see more intense precipitation events—floods that affect entire watersheds. In urban areas with outdated stormwater systems, like DC and Alexandria, flooding is already a frequent problem. In rural areas, flash floods, flooded fields, and polluted runoff threaten agriculture and the land itself. Retrofitting these systems across the region could cost billions, not to mention the immense toll on farmers and rural communities whose livelihoods are at risk.
The only way to truly protect our region is through resilience. We need local solutions like restoring wetlands and reestablishing stream connectivity, combined with regional efforts like upgrading stormwater systems and adopting climate-smart infrastructure. This isn’t just about mitigating damage—it’s about building a future where our communities, ecosystems, and economy can thrive despite the rising waters. The time to act is now.
